Something just didn’t seem right to me these past several weeks.
About a month ago, polls were showing Trump was very close, and even ahead of Democrat, presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton right as the nomination cycle was winding down.
If you recall, Trump won the Republican primaries, shattering the Republican vote record for any nominee by more than 1.4 million votes while Hillary had a quarter million votes less than Obama did in 2008.
So why are polls showing Hillary suddenly skunking Trump by double digits, even though other polls are showing half of Bernie supporters WILL NOT support her?
Well, if it makes no sense, always look at the poll’s internals.
IPSOS/Reuters shows Clinton beating Trump 43% to 33%. So what was the breakdown of political affiliation? Let’s see what the poll itself says:
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters June 18-22, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 1,585 Americans, including 781 Democrats, 491 Republicans, and 193 Independents ages 18+ were interviewed online.
For a poll to be truly indicative the same number of Republicans and Democrats should have been interviewed. Yet in this case, nearly double the amount of Democrats were asked whom they support over Republicans.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Clinton up by 12% but the breakdown shows:
The polled Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters. Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents.
So what was the breakdown for the last Presidential election between Obama, who had virtually all the black vote and the millennials and Romney, who didn’t even excite the base?
Dems-38% Rep-32% Ind-29%
These polls are horribly skewed, putting heavy weight on an even bigger Dem turnout than we saw in 2008, when Obama road his saving grace wave over McCain with numbers being 39-32.
With so many polls showing Trump sucking Reagan Democrats over to his side, coupled with other polls that show black and Hispanics in support in much higher numbers than in recent history, it is very difficult to digest such blatantly biased polls.